Holborn and St Pancras by-election tests Labour’s left as Greens eye breakthrough

London wakes to a political microcosm this morning. The Holborn and St Pancras by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation as an MP, is more than a routine contest—it is a litmus test for Labour’s ability to hold its left flank, the Greens’ electoral resilience, and the lingering influence of Andy Burnham’s brand of progressive politics. Polling stations opened at 7am, with results expected late tonight.

A seat with symbolic weight

Holborn and St Pancras, a north London constituency Starmer held since 2015, has long been a Labour stronghold. But the Greens, led by co-leader Zack Polanski, see an opportunity to peel away disillusioned left-wing voters. Polanski’s campaign has been energetic, focusing on climate action and opposition to Labour’s perceived centrism. "This isn’t just about winning a seat—it’s about showing Labour that there’s a cost to abandoning its principles," he told supporters yesterday.

For Labour, the stakes are equally high. The party’s candidate, yet to be named in the final hours before polling, faces the challenge of retaining a seat vacated by its former leader while navigating internal tensions. Starmer’s resignation as an MP, just weeks after stepping down as prime minister, has left some activists questioning the party’s direction. "This by-election is a chance to reaffirm our connection with the base," a Labour campaigner said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The contest also carries broader implications. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, has been a vocal presence in the campaign, lending his support to Labour’s efforts. His involvement reflects his growing influence within the party—and his potential ambitions beyond Manchester. "Burnham’s shadow looms large here," said a political analyst. "If Labour struggles, it could embolden those who see him as the future of the left."

A Green surge in the making?

The Greens have poured resources into the race, sensing an opening. Polanski’s campaign has highlighted Labour’s record on climate policy, arguing that the party has failed to deliver on its promises. "Labour talks about green jobs, but where are they?" he asked during a hustings last week. The Greens’ strategy appears to be resonating with younger voters and climate-conscious activists, though whether it translates into votes remains to be seen.

The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, meanwhile, are fighting for third place. The Lib Dems have targeted disaffected Labour voters with a focus on housing and healthcare, while the Tories—still reeling from their electoral collapse—hope to hold onto their core support. Neither party is expected to mount a serious challenge, but their performance could signal shifting allegiances in urban politics.

Beyond London: the national picture

The by-election comes at a pivotal moment for UK politics. Labour, now in government, faces the challenge of delivering on its promises while managing internal divisions. The Greens, buoyed by their performance in local elections, are positioning themselves as the true standard-bearers of progressive politics. And Burnham’s role in the campaign underscores the growing influence of metro mayors in shaping the national conversation.

The result will be closely watched for what it reveals about the mood of the electorate. If Labour holds the seat comfortably, it will be seen as a sign of stability. If the Greens make significant gains—or if turnout is low—it could signal a deeper unease on the left.

Culture’s climate reckoning: Tate Britain and Norway’s fjord fight

While politics dominates the headlines, two cultural stories this week highlight the intersection of art, environment, and public trust.

At Tate Britain, a new exhibition curated by Edward Enninful revisits the 1990s, a decade before smartphones, when art, music, and fashion collided in a burst of creativity. The show, which opened yesterday, features works by artists like Tracey Emin and Chris Ofili, alongside photographs of the era’s iconic raves and protests. "It’s a reminder of a time when culture felt dangerous, urgent, and alive," Enninful said. The exhibition arrives as the art world grapples with its own climate responsibilities—from the carbon footprint of exhibitions to the ethics of corporate sponsorship.

Meanwhile, in Norway, a 17-year battle over mining waste in Førde fjord has reached a critical juncture. The Norwegian government recently granted a permit to a mining company to dump waste into the fjord, despite a Supreme Court ruling against the practice. Environmental campaigners, who have fought the decision for nearly two decades, say the move sets a dangerous precedent. "This is one of Norway’s most pristine fjords," said Ingvild Fonn Asmervik of Friends of the Earth Norway. "Allowing it to be used as a dumping site is a betrayal of future generations."

The two stories—one celebrating creativity, the other lamenting environmental degradation—reflect the paradoxes of modern Britain and Europe. As governments and institutions struggle to balance progress with sustainability, culture remains a battleground for the values that will shape the future.

The UK’s military pivot: a shift in focus or a sign of retreat?

A new report from the Transition Security Project argues that the UK’s military is too focused on global commitments at the expense of domestic defence. The thinktank’s analysis, published today, warns that Britain’s overseas-oriented posture—with nearly a quarter of the defence budget spent on missions across five continents—risks leaving the country vulnerable at home.

The report comes as the government prepares to increase defence spending, a move critics say could lead to further waste if priorities are not realigned. "The UK’s military strategy is a relic of a bygone era," said one of the report’s authors. "We need to focus on defending our own territory, not policing the world."

The findings will fuel debates over the UK’s role in global security, particularly as tensions rise in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. For Andy Burnham, whose security talks with the German chancellor in Berlin this week will focus on hybrid threats from Russia, the report adds another layer of complexity to an already fraught geopolitical landscape.

What today tells us

The Holborn and St Pancras by-election is more than a local contest—it is a snapshot of the forces reshaping UK politics. Labour’s ability to hold its left flank, the Greens’ electoral ambitions, and Burnham’s rising profile all point to a political landscape in flux. Meanwhile, the cultural and military stories of the day remind us that the challenges facing Britain—climate change, defence, and public trust—are as complex as they are urgent. Tonight’s result will offer a glimpse of what comes next.